Modelling a tariff shock before it reaches landed cost
A practical walk-through of layering a tariff regime onto a corridor and reading the exposure delta.
DRApr 2026
Method notes, tariff teardowns and market structure — how we turn import & export data into an asset-style read.
High-amplification flows look alarming on a tile. But beta without alpha and tail context is only half a sentence. Here's the full read — and when a high beta is exactly what you want.
Read article →A practical walk-through of layering a tariff regime onto a corridor and reading the exposure delta.
A positive skew with a fat tail is a specific signal. We unpack what it means for downside capture.
Capture ratios came from fund analysis. They translate surprisingly well to physical flows — with caveats.
Both are industrial bellwethers, but their benchmark betas tell opposite stories. A side-by-side read.
How we made commodity, scope, direction and transport portable across reports and sessions.
What the 5% VaR figure on every Orion report means, how it's computed, and how to use it responsibly.
One email when we publish — no digests, no noise.